Chrome - it's interesting that you bring up the whole chance/probability thing as it relates to astrology. I have a pretty good parlor trick where upon meeting someone, about 75% of the time I can guess their sun sign (western, not adjusted for planetary/constellation shift) within 3 guesses (a 25% probability)... go figure! ;-)
36 y/o HD in committed monogomous relationship for 15 years (at least on my end, assumed on his as well) 2 children, 6.5 dd & 5 ds
I'm intruiged. Assuming you don't know my b-day, what would your three guesses for me be?
And the probability is not actually 25%. I'd have to pull out my probability and statistics book to figure it out, but I remember that it was a bit more complicated than just number of tries divided by number of possible answers. I could be remembering something different though. There was something called the binomial ratio that was used to determine the probability of getting a certain poker hand from a deck of cards. Been too long ...
I do remember that the minimum number of people in a room to have a greater than 50% chance of two of them having the same birthday is something like 25 people, a surprisingly low number.
Of course, to verify your 75% number, we would need at least 4 different people to try it on. Yes, I'm a geek.
Chrome
"Recollect me darlin, raise me to your lips, two undernourished egos, four rotating hips"
I'm intruiged. Assuming you don't know my b-day, what would your three guesses for me be?
And the probability is not actually 25%. I'd have to pull out my probability and statistics book to figure it out, but I remember that it was a bit more complicated than just number of tries divided by number of possible answers.
Meh, you're not really going to make me do this at this hour, are you?
Probability of getting it wrong thrice (pretending the "right" guess is a red marble and the "wrong" guesses are black marbles, drawn from box one after the other without putting them back in (dependent event)
Probability of drawing three "black" marbles in a row (getting it wrong thrice):
Chrome accedes the point and smacks head for trying to make it into a combinatorics problem.
... and is glad he doesn't have to dredge up the P&S book and remember how to use binomial coefficients. Although as a practicing scientist it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to dust it off.
(sigh)
Chrome ... who is now having a nightmare daydream about Stirling's formula and hypergeometric distributions
(looks down and discovers he is sitting in class with no pants on)
"Recollect me darlin, raise me to your lips, two undernourished egos, four rotating hips"
Chrome accedes the point and smacks head for trying to make it into a combinatorics problem.
Oh, I do that. In fact just the other day I was wrestling with an annoying little problem that was actually quite straightforward but that I overthought until it became quite convoluted. Occam's razor, and all that.
I've actually had the thought that "differentiation" is kind of like "probability" because they're both concepts that the human mind can't comprehend or approach directly. That's why people keep going to Vegas and keep having cr*ppy relationships. I think if there were two perfectly differentiated people who formed a relationship their relationship would function perfectly because every conflict would be like a game of tic-tac-toe played by adults. The cat would always win and the problem would be resolved in short order.
"Tell me, what is it you plan to do with your one wild and precious life?" - Mary Oliver
I've actually had the thought that "differentiation" is kind of like "probability" because they're both concepts that the human mind can't comprehend or approach directly.
(nods in agreement)
Quote:
I think if there were two perfectly differentiated people who formed a relationship their relationship would function perfectly because every conflict would be like a game of tic-tac-toe played by adults.
Hmmm ... R problems are caused by thinking you're playing chess when really you're playing tic-tac-toe eh?
Of course, a tic-tac-toe game played by most adults I know would end in one or the other wandering off in boredom after a few rounds. Unless it was Sexual Tic-Tac-Toe, although I have no idea how that would go.
A cop pulls over Heisenberg and asks "do you know how fast you were going?" Heisenberg answers "no, but I know exactly where I am."
Quote:
The cat would always win and the problem would be resolved in short order.
No need to bring Schroedinger into this.
"Recollect me darlin, raise me to your lips, two undernourished egos, four rotating hips"
